Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Yankees vs Mets – Friday July 04, 2025

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

On July 4, 2025, the New York Mets will host the New York Yankees in an exciting interleague matchup at Citi Field. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Mets holding a record of 50-38 and the Yankees at 48-39. The Mets are currently positioned well in the standings, while the Yankees are battling for a playoff spot. In their last game, the Mets edged out a close 3-2 victory, while the Yankees struggled, suffering an 8-5 loss.

The pitching matchup features Justin Hagenman for the Mets and Marcus Stroman for the Yankees. Hagenman, although ranked 309th among MLB starting pitchers, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.50 this season. However, projections suggest he may be due for regression, as his xFIP sits at 2.89, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate. On the other hand, Stroman, who has started four games this year with a record of 1-1, has an alarming ERA of 8.16. His xFIP of 5.70 suggests he has been unlucky, and he may improve as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Mets rank 10th in MLB, showcasing their power with the 7th most home runs. The Yankees, however, have been even more potent, sitting 2nd in MLB overall and also ranking 2nd in home runs. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams, especially considering the Yankees’ high-walk offense will face Hagenman, who has excellent control and a low walk rate.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the projections indicate a competitive game. The Mets’ moneyline is set at -130, reflecting their status as slight favorites, while the Yankees sit at +110. Given the Mets’ recent success and the Yankees’ struggles, this game could be crucial for both teams as they navigate their seasons.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Marcus Stroman’s 89-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 90.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like DJ LeMahieu tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Blackburn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Justin Hagenman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Justin Hagenman (36% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Over the past week, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.12 Units / 15% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)