Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Giants vs D-Backs – Tuesday July 1st, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

An intriguing National League West matchup unfolds on July 1, 2025, as the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. This game carries extra weight for both teams, with Arizona sitting at a .500 record of 42-42, while San Francisco is in slightly better shape at 45-40. With playoff aspirations on the line for both, this contest could be pivotal as they strive to improve their standings.

In their previous meeting, Arizona outpaced San Francisco, showcasing their offensive prowess. Entering this game, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, a significant advantage against the Giants, who rank 24th in the league. The Diamondbacks’ ability to hit for power, ranking 5th in home runs this season, looms large, particularly against Giants’ starter Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled with flyballs and control.

Zac Gallen takes the mound for the Diamondbacks, projecting to pitch an average of 5.9 innings while allowing around 2.8 earned runs today. Despite Gallen’s 5-9 record and a troubling 5.75 ERA this season, the projections suggest he may have been unlucky, indicated by his 4.41 xFIP. Gallen faces a patient Giants lineup that has drawn a high number of walks but generally has struggled against quality pitching.

Conversely, Birdsong’s 4.13 ERA is above average, yet he has been labeled among the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. His high walk rate presents an opportunity for the Diamondbacks, who not only have the potential to capitalize on walks but also have been effective at turning hard hits into runs.

With a game total set at a high 9.5 runs, this matchup promises excitement, and the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -135, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities against a Giants team that needs to find consistency at the plate. Expect Arizona to leverage their offensive strength, maintaining a strong chance to take another victory in this tightly contested series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Hayden Birdsong’s fastball spin rate has increased 113 rpm this year (2404 rpm) over where it was last year (2291 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  There has been a decrease in Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.4 mph last year to 83.6 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hayden Birdsong.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .335 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 58 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 29% ROI)