Discover the Game Time for Reds vs Red Sox – Tuesday July 01, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Boston Red Sox

On July 1, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will continue their Interleague series against the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park. In their previous matchup, the Reds narrowly defeated the Red Sox, and both teams are not currently in contention for their respective division titles. Boston carries a record of 42-44, indicating an average season, while Cincinnati stands at 44-41, giving them an above-average status.

Starting for the Red Sox is Richard Fitts, a right-handed pitcher struggling this season with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 across six starts. While his ERA sits at a somewhat average 4.68, he faces a tough test against a Reds offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts. The projections suggest that Fitts will pitch around 4.6 innings and give up approximately 2.7 earned runs, which highlights his ongoing challenges.

In contrast, Brady Singer takes the mound for the Reds, bringing a record of 7-6 and an average ERA of 4.31. Although not particularly effective, Singer is expected to go deeper into the game with a projected average of 5.5 innings pitched. However, he also presents vulnerabilities, projecting to allow 3.3 earned runs while struggling with walks.

The Red Sox’s offense ranks 7th in MLB, demonstrating strong underlying talent, particularly in power categories like home runs. They have an implied team total of 5.00 runs for this contest, reflecting confidence in their ability to deliver offensively. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s lineup checks in at 13th overall, showing some promise but not to the same extent.

With a high Game Total of 10.0 runs, bettors should watch closely how these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses interact, especially with Boston’s potent offense facing two pitchers who have been inconsistent this season.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Brady Singer’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 18th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Elly De La Cruz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Richard Fitts.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Richard Fitts has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Abraham Toro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)