St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(+100/-120)-165
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 1, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates currently find themselves at 36-50, struggling this season, while the Cardinals sit at a respectable 47-39, indicating an above-average performance. Pittsburgh’s misfortunes were on display yesterday as they dropped the first game of the series.
The spotlight will be on Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, who is projected to be an elite pitcher, ranking 2nd among approximately 350 MLB starters. Despite his excellent 2.12 ERA, Skenes has a 4-7 record this season, highlighting a tough stretch where luck has not been on his side. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing only 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters on average. However, his tendency to allow 4.9 hits and 1.5 walks could be problematic against a competitive Cardinals lineup.
On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Andre Pallante, who, while average with a 4.43 ERA, has shown potential as he projects to allow around 2.7 earned runs and 3.9 strikeouts today. His groundball-heavy approach might play well against the Pirates’ 29th-ranked offense in home runs this season.
The Pirates have a slight edge in their bullpen, ranked 17th, but the Cardinals’ pen is better, sitting at 10th. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and Pittsburgh favored at -165, there may be value in backing the Pirates, especially given that they hold home-field advantage against a Cardinals team that has been less potent on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Given that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante (59.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Lars Nootbaar has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.3-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- St. Louis Cardinals hitters collectively grade out 23rd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 7.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 22.6% more often this season (55%) than he did last season (32.4%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-230/+175)Extreme groundball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 58 games (+11.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)