Yankees vs Blue Jays Bets and Betting Trends – 6/30/25

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 30, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. Both teams are currently in the mix for a playoff spot, with the Blue Jays sitting at 45-38 and the Yankees at 48-35. The stakes are high, as this game marks the first in a crucial series between these two rivals.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Max Scherzer, who has had a tumultuous season with a 5.63 ERA, indicating he’s struggled significantly. However, his 4.98 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, potentially setting him up for a better performance. Scherzer has only started two games this year, and while he projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, his high flyball rate (40 FB%) could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that ranks 4th in home runs.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon will take the mound for New York. Rodon has been solid this season with a 2.92 ERA and a 9-5 record over 17 starts. Although his 3.50 FIP indicates he may have had some fortune on his side, he still projects to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs. His high strikeout rate (29.7 K%) could be tested against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 1st in the league for the least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 12th. Toronto’s power numbers are concerning, as they sit 21st in home runs and 25th in stolen bases. Betting odds favor the Yankees with a moneyline of -150, while the Blue Jays are underdogs at +125. Despite the odds, the Blue Jays’ strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in the league, could play a pivotal role in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Austin Wells is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Austin Wells, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Max Scherzer has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 7.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.56 — a 1.67 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Andres Gimenez is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games (+18.22 Units / 28% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+16.80 Units / 240% ROI)