Cardinals vs Pirates Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, June 30, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 30, 2025, both teams are coming off contrasting victories in their previous games. The Pirates managed a commanding 12-1 win, while the Cardinals secured a 7-0 shutout, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities.

In the National League Central matchup, the Pirates sit at 35-50 this season, struggling with one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking 28th overall. Their pitching has been a concern as well; Andrew Heaney, projected to start, is currently ranked as the 268th best starting pitcher, a position that highlights his struggles this season. With a 3-7 record and an average ERA of 4.48, Heaney’s recent performance was particularly poor, allowing 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last outing.

Conversely, the Cardinals boast a much better record at 47-38 and rank 11th in offense, led by a well-rounded lineup that includes a strong batting average, ranking 7th in MLB. Erick Fedde, their projected starter, has also had his challenges, holding a below-average ERA of 4.11. However, his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 5.07 suggests he may have been fortunate this season, and he will need to step up against a high-strikeout Pirates offense.

Despite Pittsburgh’s recent win, the projections suggest they might struggle against St. Louis. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs and both teams having a moneyline of -110, this game promises to be tightly contested, but the Cardinals appear to have the upper hand based on their current form and overall performance this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Erick Fedde’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (37.5 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Andrew Heaney’s 89.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 2-mph drop off from last season’s 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Joey Bart is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)