Review Betting Odds and Picks for Padres vs Phillies – Monday, June 30, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies

On June 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The stakes are high as the Phillies, with a solid record of 49-35, look to continue their strong season against a Padres team that stands at 45-38. Philadelphia currently ranks 9th in offensive prowess, while San Diego struggles at 23rd, highlighting a significant disparity in their offensive capabilities.

The Phillies are projected to send Zack Wheeler to the mound, who is having an elite season, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Wheeler has a commendable Win/Loss record of 7-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.55. He faces a Padres offense that ranks as the 3rd least strikeout-prone team, which could complicate Wheeler’s high-strikeout approach. In his last outing, Wheeler showcased his dominance with a complete game shutout, further solidifying his status as a top-tier pitcher.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with Matt Waldron, who is struggling this season. Waldron’s projections indicate he will pitch around 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, which is concerning given the Padres’ offensive struggles. Their lineup ranks 27th in home runs, making it tough to expect significant run support for Waldron.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, expectations lean towards a high-scoring affair. The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -220, reflecting their stronger overall performance this season. As the series opener, this matchup could set the tone for the games to follow, especially if Philadelphia can capitalize on their offensive advantages and Wheeler’s elite pitching.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Matt Waldron’s 2064-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 12th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jake Cronenworth has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under Total Bases
  Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Schwarber has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 29.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-230)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-185)
  Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)