Learn About Twins vs Tigers Picks and Betting Trends – Sunday June 29, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers

On June 29, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers are enjoying a stellar season with a 52-32 record, while the Twins sit at 40-43, struggling to find consistency. In their last contest, the Tigers claimed a decisive 10-5 victory over the Twins, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Detroit’s ace, Tarik Skubal, is projected to take the mound, boasting an impressive 9-2 record and a sparkling 2.29 ERA. Skubal ranks as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, demonstrating his elite status. He has been a consistent force, projected to pitch 6.2 innings today while allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average. In contrast, the Twins will counter with Chris Paddack, who has struggled this season with a 3-6 record and a 4.64 ERA. Paddack’s projections indicate he may allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which could spell trouble against a powerful Tigers lineup.

Detroit’s offense ranks 5th in MLB, highlighted by a robust batting average of .270, and they have also demonstrated their power with 8th place in home runs. The projections indicate a solid average of 4.37 runs for the Tigers today. Conversely, Minnesota’s offense is positioned at 16th overall but ranks a disappointing 22nd in batting average, projecting a mere 2.63 runs today.

As the Tigers look to build on their recent success, they are positioned as significant favorites with a moneyline of -290, reflecting their strong form and advantageous matchup against a struggling Twins team.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chris Paddack’s 2231-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 23rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball batters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tarik Skubal.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 19.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal ranks in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Riley Greene has strong power (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Greene.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-290)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 80 games (+14.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)