Betting Trends for Mariners vs Rangers Game – 6/29/25

Seattle Mariners

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners face off on June 29, 2025, both teams are sitting around the .500 mark, with the Rangers at 41-42 and the Mariners at 42-40. This matchup in the American League West is crucial for both teams, as they look to gain momentum in the second half of the season. The Rangers emerged victorious in their last game against the Mariners on June 28, winning a tight contest 3-2.

On the mound, the Rangers are set to start Jack Leiter, who has had a challenging season. With a 4-5 record and a 4.55 ERA, Leiter is rated as the 279th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has struggled to find consistency. His last outing was uneventful, pitching just four innings and allowing three earned runs. The projections suggest he may average 5.0 innings today, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but with a concerning 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks expected.

Conversely, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who has performed better this season with a solid 3.69 ERA and an average win-loss record of 4-5. However, Castillo’s last start was rough, giving up five earned runs over five innings. He projects to pitch six innings today while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is above average.

Offensively, the Mariners boast the 8th best offense in MLB, while the Rangers rank a dismal 28th. This stark difference could play a significant role in the game, as the Mariners are projected to score 4.40 runs compared to the Rangers’ 4.10. With the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 30th in the league, the Mariners may find opportunities to capitalize late in the game. As the series continues, the Rangers will need to leverage their home-field advantage to turn their season around.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 95.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Mitch Garver is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball batters, Jack Leiter and his 36.9% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in today’s game going up against 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Corey Seager will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 74 games (+18.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Evan Carter has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)