See the Updated Player Rankings for Cubs vs Astros – June 29, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Houston Astros

On June 29, 2025, an exciting Interleague matchup unfolds at Minute Maid Park as the Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs. Both teams boast identical records of 49-34, indicating they are in the thick of a competitive season. However, the Astros enter this game looking to rebound after a tough 12-3 loss to the Cubs just a day prior.

The pitching matchup features left-handed ace Framber Valdez for the Astros against right-hander Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Valdez has been elite this season, ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball according to advanced metrics, with a solid 2.88 ERA. His recent form is promising: in his last start on June 24, he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs. However, the projections suggest he could be due for a downturn, as his expected ERA sits nearly a run higher at 3.82 xERA, hinting he may have been a bit fortunate so far.

On the other hand, Taillon has struggled, evidenced by a 4.47 ERA and a concerning last outing where he allowed 8 earned runs over 4 innings. This matchup might be favorable for the Astros, whose offense ranks 14th overall but has shown promise with a 3rd best team batting average in the league. Additionally, the Astros have the advantage of being a low-strikeout team against Taillon, whose strikeout rate is just 19.1%.

As sportsbooks favor the Astros with a moneyline of -150, they project an average team total of 4.06 runs for today’s game. Given the recent performance of both pitchers and the Astros’ offensive capabilities, they may well capitalize on Taillon’s vulnerabilities. This game, with its low total of 7.5 runs, could provide an intriguing opportunity for discerning bettors.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jameson Taillon is expected to post an average of 17 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Seiya Suzuki has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs batters jointly place 6th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 10.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because of his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will be in a good position being matched up with 7 batters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.95 Units / 72% ROI)