Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs D-Backs – Friday, June 27th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 27, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Miami Marlins at Chase Field for the first game of their series. Arizona sits at 41-39 this season, showcasing an average performance, while Miami struggles with a record of 34-45. The Diamondbacks have a strong offense, ranking 3rd in MLB, and they are coming off a loss to the San Francisco Giants on June 25, where they fell 7-3. In contrast, the Marlins recently broke a losing streak with a 12-5 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He has been solid this season with a 7-3 record and a commendable 3.39 ERA, ranking as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 3.91 xERA suggests he may have had some luck on his side. Kelly’s last outing on June 21 was impressive, as he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 7 batters.

Eury Perez will start for the Marlins, but he faces a tough challenge. With a 0-2 record and a troubling 6.17 ERA, he ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher. Perez has struggled to find his rhythm, and his high walk rate of 13.0% could be problematic against a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th in walks drawn.

Given the offensive firepower of the Diamondbacks, who have hit 115 home runs this season, they should capitalize on Perez’s tendency to allow fly balls. The projections favor Arizona significantly in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.82 runs. With the Diamondbacks looking to bounce back from their recent loss, they are positioned well to take advantage of Miami’s struggles.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jesus Sanchez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 81st percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.20 Units / 230% ROI)