Marlins vs Giants Bets and Betting Trends – 6/26/25

Miami Marlins

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins on June 26, 2025, at Oracle Park for the third game of their series. After the Giants fell 8-5 to the Marlins yesterday, they will look to bounce back against a struggling team that has had a rough season, currently holding a record of 33-45. The Giants, with a more respectable 44-36 record, are vying to maintain their edge as they compete for playoff positioning, although they are not in the thick of the division race.

On the mound, the Giants will send Hayden Birdsong to the hill, who currently holds a 3-1 record with a strong 3.25 ERA. Despite these favorable numbers, Birdsong’s 4.06 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat lucky and may face challenges in his performance going forward. His high-flyball tendencies, coupled with the Marlins’ lack of power—ranking 4th least in MLB with only 66 home runs—could work in his favor.

For the Marlins, Janson Junk takes the mound, boasting an impressive 2-0 record and a stellar 2.60 ERA. However, his 4.20 xERA suggests he could be due for regression, and with the Giants’ patient offense drawing the 3rd most walks in MLB, they may find offensive opportunities against Junk, who has excellent control with a low walk rate.

While the Giants’ offense ranks 24th overall, their bullpen is highly regarded at 7th in the league, giving them an edge in tight games. With the Giants favored at -185 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.28 runs, they will aim to secure a much-needed win against the Marlins, who have struggled both at the plate and on the mound this season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Janson Junk is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Eric Wagaman is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Agustin Ramirez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Hayden Birdsong’s slider rate has risen by 5.4% from last year to this one (18.4% to 23.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Wilmer Flores has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect better numbers for the San Francisco Giants offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)