Rangers vs Orioles Picks and Odds – June 24, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Texas Rangers on June 24, 2025, the stakes remain significant even for teams out of contention. The Orioles, currently struggling with a 34-44 record, will look to break a recent lull after losing to the Rangers in yesterday’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Rangers, at 38-41, are also experiencing a below-average season but will aim to build momentum from their recent win.

Baltimore is projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has had an inconsistent season with a 4-7 record and a troubling 5.64 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced projections suggest Morton could perform better than his numbers indicate, thanks to an xFIP of 3.96 that hints at some bad luck. However, Morton’s high walk rate (10.4 BB%) could spell trouble against a Rangers offense that has been surprisingly patient.

On the other side, Texas will counters with Jake Latz, a left-handed pitcher whose 1-0 record and impressive 3.26 ERA might seem promising. However, Latz’s 4.02 xFIP suggests his performance could regress. Both pitchers could find themselves in tough spots as they face lineups that rank towards the bottom of the league in batting average—Baltimore at 23rd and Texas at 27th.

While the Orioles boast the 11th best home run ranking in MLB, their overall offensive performance has been lackluster, ranking 22nd. The Rangers’ offense, ranked 28th, has struggled significantly, despite finding some success on the base paths, ranking 9th in stolen bases.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Orioles holding a slight edge at -135, indicating a projected team total of 5.29 runs. With both teams in need of a win to regain some confidence, expect a tightly contested affair at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jake Latz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jake Latz will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  In the past week, Josh Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Texas Rangers has been 114.7 mph this year, putting them as the #26 offense in MLB by this standard.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Charlie Morton has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .354 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ramon Laureano has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Gary Sanchez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.88 Units / 27% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 68 games (+21.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.30 Units / 70% ROI)