Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for White Sox vs Blue Jays – June 21, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago White Sox on June 21, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Blue Jays are currently 40-35 this season, showcasing an above-average performance, while the White Sox struggle significantly with a record of 24-52. In their last outing, both teams faced off on June 20, where the Blue Jays fell to the White Sox by a score of 7-1, adding to their recent woes.

Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Despite being ranked 179th among starting pitchers in MLB, Berrios has a solid ERA of 3.81 this season. However, his 4.73 xERA suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, potentially indicating a regression. Berrios is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs, although he has struggled with hits and walks, projecting to allow 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

On the other side, Aaron Civale, who has had a rough season, will start for the White Sox. His ERA stands at 4.67, which is merely average, but he ranks among the worst in MLB according to advanced metrics. Civale’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs, with a concerning tendency to give up hits and walks.

The Blue Jays’ offense, ranked 15th overall, has shown flashes of potential, particularly with their batting average ranked 7th in MLB. In contrast, the White Sox’s offense is struggling, sitting at 29th overall and dead last in batting average. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities, combined with the Blue Jays’ superior bullpen ranked 6th, positions Toronto as the clear favorite in this matchup.

With the Blue Jays aiming to bounce back from their recent loss and capitalize on the White Sox’s misfortunes, this game could be pivotal in shaping the series. Expect the Blue Jays to leverage their home advantage and a stronger overall performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Aaron Civale is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Toronto’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Noda, Luis Robert Jr., Austin Slater).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  This season, Jose Berrios has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), throwing it on 27.1% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Andres Gimenez is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 55 games (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)