Game Forecast: Orioles vs Yankees Match Preview – 6/20/25

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles on June 20, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Yankees are currently positioned well in the American League East, boasting a record of 43-31 and showing strong form after a convincing 7-3 victory against the Orioles yesterday. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling at 32-42, following a recent win of their own, but their overall performance this season has been disappointing.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, is enjoying an elite season, currently ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His impressive 1.89 ERA indicates he has been nearly unhittable. Fried’s last outing on June 15 saw him go 7 innings strong, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 9 batters, showcasing his dominance on the mound.

In contrast, Tomoyuki Sugano will take the hill for Baltimore. Sugano’s 3.38 ERA is respectable, but his underlying metrics suggest he could be in for a tough outing against a potent Yankees offense. With his 4.40 xFIP, he may struggle to contain the Yankees’ 2nd ranked offense, which has excelled in power, ranking 2nd in home runs this season.

Oddsmakers have made the Yankees significant favorites for this matchup, reflecting their strong current form and the disparity in pitching talent. With the Yankees projected to score an impressive 5.66 runs, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on Fried’s elite performance, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+230)
  Tomoyuki Sugano is an extreme groundball pitcher (43% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the majors — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Colton Cowser is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his secondary offerings 12% less often this year (38.9%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+14.12 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 33 away games (+15.03 Units / 41% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)