Game Forecast: Orioles vs Yankees Match Preview – 6/20/25

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles on June 20, 2025, in the first game of a crucial series, with both teams looking to establish momentum. The Yankees enter the matchup with a strong 43-31 record, showcasing their dominance in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling at 32-42, as they continue to search for consistency.

In their last game, the Yankees put on a show with a complete game shutout from Max Fried, further solidifying his status as an elite pitcher in Major League Baseball, currently ranked 4th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried boasts a remarkable Win/Loss record of 9-2 with an impressive ERA of 1.89 this season, though his 3.09 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. Fried is projected to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing an average of just 2.1 earned runs, making him a tough challenge for the Orioles’ offense, which ranks 18th in the league.

Tomoyuki Sugano will take the mound for Baltimore, bringing a 5-4 record and a solid 3.38 ERA this year. However, he is regarded as one of the worst pitchers in MLB by the Power Rankings, and his projections indicate he may struggle against the Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 2nd overall. Sugano is expected to pitch approximately 5.0 innings while allowing around 3.6 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that excels in power hitting.

With the Yankees favored heavily at -230 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.39 runs, their strong offensive capabilities paired with Fried’s elite pitching present a significant challenge for the struggling Orioles. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for an action-packed matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+185)
  Tomoyuki Sugano is an extreme groundball pitcher (43% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the majors — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Colton Cowser is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his secondary offerings 12% less often this year (38.9%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+14.12 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 33 away games (+15.03 Units / 41% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)