Royals vs Rangers Betting Guide and Expert Picks June 18th, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Texas Rangers

On June 18, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field for the second game of their series. The Rangers are currently struggling with a record of 36-37, while the Royals sit at 35-38, making this matchup a contest between two teams that are having average to below-average seasons. In their last game, the Rangers fell to the Royals by a score of 6-1, adding to their woes.

Texas is projected to start Patrick Corbin, who has had a decent ERA of 3.66 this season but ranks as the 311th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he has struggled overall. He has also been hit hard recently, allowing 5 earned runs in just 5 innings in his last start. On the other hand, Kansas City will counter with Kris Bubic, who has been effective this season with an impressive ERA of 1.92, ranking him 34th among starting pitchers. However, Bubic’s recent outing was less stellar, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings pitched.

Offensively, the Rangers have the 28th best offense in MLB, which could be concerning against a solid pitcher like Bubic. The Royals, despite their own struggles, have the 14th best batting average in MLB, giving them a slight edge in this department. With the projections indicating a close matchup, the Rangers are projected to score around 3.77 runs while the Royals are expected to tally about 4.23 runs.

With both teams looking to improve their standing and coming off a decisive game yesterday, this matchup could be more competitive than the records suggest. The Rangers will need to capitalize on their home field advantage and hope Corbin can outperform his season stats against a Royals offense that, while inconsistent, has shown flashes of potential.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Kris Bubic has been lucky this year, posting a 1.92 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.83 — a 1.91 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Maikel Garcia has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 6.7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #29 club in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Patrick Corbin’s 90.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 8th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Adolis Garcia has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Today, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 71 games (+21.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+18.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Josh Jung has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 68% ROI)