Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Astros vs Athletics Match – Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Houston Astros

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Athletics

With the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics squaring off again today at Sutter Health Park, this matchup comes on the heels of an unexpected victory for the Athletics, who won yesterday’s game 3-1. However, despite that win, the Athletics (30-44) continue to struggle this season, while the Astros (41-31) are performing well, making this an interesting clash in the American League West.

The Athletics are projected to start JP Sears, a left-handed pitcher who has been inconsistent this year, sporting a 5.08 ERA and the #198 rank among MLB starters. Although Sears’ 4.46 xFIP suggests he may be due for better results moving forward, his performance against a low-strikeout Astros offense could impact his effectiveness. The Astros will counter with Jason Alexander, who has struggled even more, with an alarming 18.00 ERA and no starts this season. Both pitchers are expected to allow a considerable number of earned runs, with Sears projected for 3.3 and Alexander for 3.0.

Batter-wise, the Athletics boast the 8th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their home run power—ranking 6th with 92 dingers this season. This strength may play a significant role today, especially against Alexander, who is prone to giving up fly balls. Meanwhile, the Astros sit in the middle of the pack offensively, ranked 15th overall but with a solid batting average of .269, placing them 9th in the league.

Given the projections favoring the Athletics today and their recent offensive performance, this matchup could present an opportunity for Oakland to build on yesterday’s momentum. As the Athletics look to continue their winning ways, the pressure is on the Astros to maintain their strong play against a rival facing a tough season. The Game Total is set at a high 11.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Jason Alexander will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Typically, batters like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as J.T. Ginn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  In today’s matchup, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.8% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  JP Sears’s 2014-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 2nd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Nicholas Kurtz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Athletics projected lineup today (.310 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.82 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)