Royals vs Rangers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 6/17/2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Texas Rangers

On June 17, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling in the standings, with the Rangers sitting at 36-36, while the Royals are a notch lower at 34-38. This matchup features two pitchers with notable differences in recent performance; Jack Leiter of the Rangers is coming off an uneventful outing where he pitched just 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, while Seth Lugo of the Royals enjoyed a strong start last time out, hurling 6 innings with no earned runs.

Leiter, ranked #258 among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced stats, has had a rocky season despite a solid ERA of 3.88. His xFIP of 4.81 suggests he may have been fortunate and could be due for regression. In contrast, Lugo’s ERA of 3.18 is impressive, but his xFIP of 4.17 indicates potential struggles ahead.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 27th in MLB, which is concerning for their chances, especially given their poor team batting average of .227, placing them 26th overall. The projections suggest that the Rangers will have a hard time capitalizing on their home field advantage against Lugo, who has shown the ability to limit damage.

The Royals’ offense, while slightly better in batting average at 14th, is dead last in home runs. This makes it likely that Leiter’s flyball tendencies won’t be punished severely. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors might see value in the Rangers as favorites, especially given their implied team total of 4.27 runs compared to the Royals’ 3.73.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 23rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kansas City Royals bats collectively rank 29th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 6.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball hitters, Jack Leiter and his 37.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s matchup going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Evan Carter has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In today’s game, Jonah Heim is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (87th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 58 games (+17.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 62 games (+30.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 37% ROI)