Explore Player Props Preview for Blue Jays vs Phillies – 6/15/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 15, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, currently holding a solid 41-29 record, are coming off a narrow 3-2 victory against the Blue Jays in their last game on June 14. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays sit at 38-32, having lost that same game, and will be looking to bounce back.

On the mound, Zack Wheeler is projected to start for the Phillies. He’s been nothing short of elite this season, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Wheeler boasts a 6-2 record and a stellar 2.85 ERA, with projections indicating he will pitch around 6.2 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average. His ability to generate strikeouts, with a 32.0% strikeout rate, will be crucial against a Blue Jays offense that ranks as the least strikeout-prone in MLB.

Conversely, Jose Berrios is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Despite a respectable 3.38 ERA, he has struggled this season, with a 2-2 record and an xFIP of 4.24 suggesting he might be due for a downturn. His projections indicate he will pitch about 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.5 could hinder his effectiveness against a potent Phillies lineup.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 8th overall in MLB and has been particularly productive, with their best hitter recently showcasing a remarkable .615 batting average over the past week. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense, while 10th overall, has seen a dip in power, ranking just 17th in home runs.

With the Phillies favored at -165, the odds suggest a strong likelihood of them continuing their winning ways against a Blue Jays team that will need to step up their game to avoid another defeat.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.7 mph this season (91.8 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Batters such as Andres Gimenez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zack Wheeler who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Zack Wheeler (35.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Bryson Stott is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)