Winning Probability and Team Stats for Guardians vs Mariners Match – Saturday June 14, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners and the Cleveland Guardians face off in the second game of their series on June 14, 2025, at T-Mobile Park. Both teams are hovering around .500 this season, with the Mariners sitting at 34-34 and the Guardians at 35-33. This matchup is crucial as neither team is firmly in contention, making every win vital as they aim for a potential Wild Card spot.

In their previous matchup, the Mariners fell short against the Guardians, marking a disappointing loss that adds pressure ahead of this tilt. Both teams are dealing with average offense; however, the Mariners rank 12th in overall offensive performance, buoyed by their strong home run capabilities, as they sit 8th in MLB for the long ball. Conversely, the Guardians rank 24th in offensive efficiency, struggling to generate consistent run production.

On the mound, Seattle will send George Kirby to the hill. Despite being ranked 27th among MLB’s starting pitchers, Kirby’s ERA sits at a troubling 6.53, indicating he’s had a rough go this season, though metrics suggest he may be due for some luck. Kirby projects to pitch a standard 6.0 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.9 hits and 0.9 walks on average could be his undoing.

Tanner Bibee counters for Cleveland, bringing an ERA of 3.81 and a solid, if not spectacular, ranking of 61st among MLB starters. Bibee has also dealt with inconsistency, as reflected in his projections, suggesting he may allow around 2.5 earned runs, but he has a higher walk rate at 1.6, which could give the Mariners opportunities.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the cautious outlook from sportsbooks. With the Mariners’ current moneyline at -130 and the Guardians at +110, it indicates a tight contest. The Mariners may have the edge, but they need to leverage their power hitters to overcome their pitching woes and capitalize on any mistakes from the Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Daniel Schneemann is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over George Kirby in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Rowdy Tellez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 98.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+4.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)