Player Prop Picks for Cardinals vs Brewers – 6/13/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On June 13, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field in a crucial National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently sitting at 37-33, are having an above-average season, while the Cardinals follow closely with a record of 36-33. The last encounter saw the Brewers triumph, making this the second game in a tightly contested series.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, bringing a solid 5-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.69 this season. Although his advanced stats suggest he may have been a bit lucky, his skills still position him as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters. However, he also faces concerns with his projected 4.2 hits and 1.9 walks allowed, which could create challenges against the Cardinals’ offense.

Erick Fedde will counter for the Cardinals, holding a 3-5 record and a 3.54 ERA. His projections indicate he may struggle as well, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 hits, while only striking out 4.2 batters. Given that the Brewers are ranked 7th in bullpen strength, they could capitalize on the weaknesses of the Cardinals, who rank 22nd in the same category.

While the Brewers’ offense has struggled, ranking 23rd overall, they have shown flashes of speed on the bases. Conversely, the Cardinals boast a stronger lineup, ranking 9th in MLB, but have their own issues with power, sitting 23rd in home runs. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could be an intriguing one for bettors looking to capitalize on the Brewers’ favorable pitching matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Erick Fedde’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (39.5 compared to 31.1% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Brice Turang is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+13.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)