Angels vs Orioles Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday June 13, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Baltimore Orioles

A pivotal matchup awaits as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Los Angeles Angels at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 13, 2025. The Orioles, currently struggling with a record of 27-40, are mired in a tough season, while the Angels sit at 33-34, reflecting an average year. Both teams come into this game looking to build momentum as the Angels won their last outing against the Orioles 4-1 on June 12, a result that adds pressure on Baltimore to flip the script in this first game of their series.

On the mound for Baltimore, Charlie Morton is projected to start. Despite being ranked as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB, Morton has shown some encouraging metrics; his 4.49 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Still, with a 6.59 ERA, he needs to turn things around quickly. Morton tends to struggle with walks, sitting at an 11.7 BB% this year, but he faces an Angels lineup that ranks as the 2nd least selective at the plate, which may play to his advantage.

Jack Kochanowicz, the Angels’ starter, is also having a challenging season with a 5.61 ERA. His own high walk rate of 11.0 BB% adds another layer of intrigue to the matchup, especially with an Orioles lineup that ranks as the 6th least walk-offensive team. The projections indicate that Kochanowicz may allow around 3.2 earned runs today, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to capitalize.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 18th in MLB, while the Angels find themselves at 23rd. The Orioles’ best hitter has been on a hot streak, recording a .417 batting average over the last week, which might provide the spark needed to outscore the Angels’ powerful yet inconsistent offense. With a high game total of 9.5 runs, bettors should prepare for a potentially high-scoring affair as both teams vie for critical wins to regain their footing in the league.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jo Adell has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Charlie Morton’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (43.9 compared to 38.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.08 Units / 21% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+9.50 Units / 59% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 32% ROI)