Discover the Game Location for Mariners vs D-Backs – Monday, June 9, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 9, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field in an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams have been inconsistent this season, with the Diamondbacks holding a record of 31-34, while the Mariners sit slightly better at 33-31. The stakes are elevated for the Diamondbacks, who are looking to turn around what has been a below-average season.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for Arizona. He has been solid this season, sporting a 6-2 record and an impressive 3.43 ERA, ranking as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.03 xERA suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Kelly projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. His performance will be crucial against a Mariners lineup that, while averaging in the middle of the pack overall, has shown power, ranking 6th in home runs.

Emerson Hancock, slated to start for Seattle, presents a different challenge. Despite a 2-2 record, he has struggled with a 5.19 ERA and is considered among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. With a low strikeout rate of 17.5% facing a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts, Hancock may find it difficult to capitalize on his strengths.

The Diamondbacks’ recent offensive surge, highlighted by their 4th best ranking in home runs, positions them well against a struggling Mariners bullpen, which ranks 21st in MLB. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, Arizona is favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting confidence in their offense to capitalize on this matchup. As both teams continue to navigate a challenging season, this game could be pivotal for the Diamondbacks in regaining momentum as they attempt to claw back into contention.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Emerson Hancock is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Merrill Kelly’s cutter usage has decreased by 6.5% from last season to this one (25.2% to 18.7%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+295/-430)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+8.85 Units / 111% ROI)