Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
(+100/-120)-110
As the Boston Red Sox welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Fenway Park on June 9, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their positions in the American League East. The Rays currently hold a record of 35-30, enjoying an above-average season, while the Red Sox sit at 32-35, struggling below .500. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are eager to gain an early edge.
In their last outing, the Red Sox’s Brayan Bello showcased his talent, throwing a complete game shutout, which could boost his confidence entering this matchup. Bello, a right-handed pitcher, boasts a solid 3.91 ERA this season, although his xFIP of 4.46 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.8 walks could pose challenges against a Rays lineup that, while ranked 15th in the league offensively, has shown flashes of potential.
On the other side, Shane Baz, also a right-handed pitcher, brings a 4.96 ERA and has started 12 games this year with a 5-3 record. The projections indicate he might improve, as his xFIP of 3.94 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Baz is expected to pitch about 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, with a similar concern regarding hits and walks.
Boston’s offense ranks 5th in MLB, indicating strong underlying talent, particularly with their powerful lineup, having hit 83 home runs, the 6th most in the league. In contrast, Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled, ranking 15th overall. However, the Rays do lead the league in stolen bases, which might play a crucial role in this matchup.
With a game total of 9.0 runs, the betting markets view this as a closely contested game, with both teams having moneylines set at -110. The projections suggest a competitive affair, but the Red Sox’s superior offense could give them the edge they need to secure a much-needed victory.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Shane Baz has a mean projection of 2 walks in today’s outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)In the last week, Yandy Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Brayan Bello’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (52.9 vs. 45% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Trevor Story has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Kristian Campbell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+9.70 Units / 97% ROI)