Winning Probability and Match Preview for Braves vs Giants – 6/06/2025

Atlanta Braves

@

San Francisco Giants

On June 6, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Atlanta Braves at Oracle Park in a game that promises to be an intriguing matchup as both teams look to improve their standing. The Giants, currently sitting at 35-28, are having a solid season, while the Braves are struggling at 27-34. This contest marks the first game in a series, and both teams are coming off notable performances: the Giants secured a narrow 3-2 victory against their previous opponent, while the Braves suffered a tough 11-10 loss.

San Francisco will send Hayden Birdsong to the mound, who, despite being ranked 180th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced statistics, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.37. Birdsong’s last outing on June 1 saw him pitch five innings, allowing only one earned run, coupled with five strikeouts. However, he projects to pitch just 4.5 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could be a concern against a Braves lineup that ranks 15th in offensive production.

Atlanta counters with Spencer Schwellenbach, the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, who has been performing at a high level with a 3.13 ERA. Schwellenbach threw a gem in his last start on May 31, going six innings with no earned runs and 11 strikeouts. His projections today are solid, suggesting he can keep the Braves competitive, despite a weak showing from the team’s overall offense, which ranks only 15th.

Interestingly, while the Giants’ offense is rated 24th in the league, their bullpen is ranked 1st, giving Birdsong some cushion if he falters. Despite the Giants being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the Braves’ struggles may open the door for an upset in a game where the total runs are set at a low 7.5. With these factors in play, expect a closely contested match that could swing either way.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-150)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #28 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.4-mph mark last year has lowered to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+110/-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+110/-130)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)