Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Orioles vs Red Sox Match – 5/25/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will face off against the Baltimore Orioles on May 25, 2025, at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The Red Sox, sitting at a .500 record of 27-27, are hoping to turn around their fortunes after losing to the Orioles by a narrow score of 2-1 in their last game on May 24. Meanwhile, the Orioles find themselves struggling with a 17-34 record, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league this season.

The Red Sox will send Walker Buehler to the mound, who, despite ranking as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has managed a solid 4-1 record with a respectable 4.00 ERA this year. Buehler’s recent outing on May 20 was abbreviated, but he did not allow any earned runs. In contrast, Dean Kremer, the Orioles’ starter, has had a rough go this season and ranks among the worst pitchers in the league, sporting a 5.50 ERA and a 3-5 record. Although Kremer has shown some signs of potential with a lower xFIP of 4.55, his recent performance suggests he might struggle against a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 5th in MLB.

Boston’s lineup has been productive, evidenced by their 4.71 implied team total for this game. Players are stepping up, with the team’s best hitter recently boasting a .417 batting average over the last week. On the other hand, the Orioles’ offense has been below average, ranking 22nd in MLB, which could spell trouble against a solid Red Sox bullpen that ranks 7th in the league.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Dean Kremer will concede an average of 2.97 earned runs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Walker Buehler’s change-up usage has increased by 5% from last year to this one (5.2% to 10.2%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Baltimore’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.90 Units / 27% ROI)