Orioles vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, May 19, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague matchup on May 19, 2025, at American Family Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Brewers sitting at 22-25, while the Orioles have a dismal 15-30 record. The Brewers are projected to start Quinn Priester, who has had an average season with a 4.59 ERA, while the Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who has a less impressive 5.36 ERA.

In their last game, the Brewers secured a 5-2 victory against the Chicago Cubs, showcasing a much-needed win. Conversely, the Orioles fell 10-4 to the New York Yankees, continuing their rough stretch. This game marks the beginning of a series between these two teams, and both will be looking to turn their seasons around.

Priester’s advanced metrics suggest he may not be as reliable as his ERA indicates, as his 5.39 SIERA points to a potential decline in performance. However, he faces an Orioles offense that ranks 21st in the league, struggling to capitalize on pitching mistakes. Meanwhile, Kremer’s high-flyball tendencies could be mitigated against a Brewers lineup that ranks 27th in home runs this season.

Betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating a close contest. The projections suggest that the Brewers may have the edge, especially given their slightly better offensive performance and the potential for Priester to exploit the Orioles’ weaknesses at the plate. With an average total set at 8.5 runs, this game could hinge on which pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup’s struggles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  In his last GS, Dean Kremer gave up a monstrous 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Quinn Priester has averaged 14.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-180/+140)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 53% ROI)