Astros vs Mariners Picks and Betting Tips – July 21st, 2024

Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park on July 21, 2024, the American League West rivals find themselves jockeying for position in a tight divisional race. With identical win-loss records (Mariners at 52-48 and Astros at 52-46), both teams are having above average seasons, making this third game in their series all the more critical.

In their last meeting on July 20, the Astros emerged victorious with a 4-2 win, despite entering as slight underdogs. The Mariners, who were favored with a -130 closing Moneyline, couldn’t capitalize, losing despite having a 54% implied win probability.

On the mound, Seattle will start Bryan Woo, who ranks as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Woo has been solid this season with a 3-1 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA, although his peripheral indicators suggest some luck has been involved. Woo projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, and striking out five batters. However, he might struggle against an Astros offense that ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average and 10th overall.

Houston counters with Ronel Blanco, who, despite a 9-4 record and a 2.56 ERA, is ranked as one of the worst pitchers in MLB by the same Power Rankings. Blanco has also been fortunate this season, as evidenced by his 4.22 xFIP. He projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.3 innings with 5.8 strikeouts. Blanco’s last outing on July 14 was solid, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, but facing a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in offense and 30th in team batting average should give him an advantage.

The Mariners’ bullpen, ranked 26th, pales in comparison to the Astros’ 6th-ranked pen, which could be a decisive factor late in the game. Despite their offensive struggles, the Mariners hold a projected 57% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, making them a value bet given the current odds.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Ronel Blanco’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (92.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jon Singleton may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Robles is in the 94th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .360.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+15.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 43 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)