Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-110
As the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Philadelphia Phillies on May 18, 2025, the stakes are significant for both teams. The Phillies, boasting a solid record of 27-18, are in a much stronger position than the struggling Pirates, who sit at 15-31. After a decisive 5-2 victory over the Pirates just a day prior, the Phillies are looking to continue building momentum against a team that has had a rough season.
The matchup on the mound features Philadelphia’s Mick Abel against Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes. Abel, ranked 261st among MLB starters according to advanced statistics, has had a challenging season, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs and a troubling 4.8 hits allowed. In contrast, Skenes, who holds the impressive rank of 2nd, projects to go 5.6 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs. With an ERA of 2.63 and a strong performance in his last outing, Skenes appears poised to dominate this matchup.
Offensively, the Phillies are faring much better, ranking 8th overall in MLB, compared to the Pirates’ dismal 29th ranking. Philadelphia’s offense, led by their best hitter who has an OPS of .968, is expected to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s weaknesses. The Pirates, while not lacking in speed with a 6th ranking in stolen bases, struggle significantly in other areas, particularly power hitting.
With the projections favoring the Phillies significantly, they enter this game with an implied total of 4.25 runs. As the series continues, the Pirates will need to pull off an upset to turn their fortunes around.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Bryan Reynolds’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.2-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H MoneylineThe Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 45.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.8.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+250/-350)J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.50 Units / 125% ROI)