Player Predictions Overview for Mariners vs Padres – 5/16/2025

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres host the Seattle Mariners in an exciting Interleague matchup on May 16, 2025. With the Padres currently boasting a strong record of 27-15, they are positioned well in the standings, while the Mariners sit at 23-19, showing they are above average this season. San Diego’s last game on May 14 saw them secure a convincing 5-1 victory, furthering their momentum.

San Diego is projected to start right-handed pitcher Stephen Kolek, who dazzled in his last outing by tossing a complete game shutout on May 10, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing hitters. Despite Kolek’s solid Win/Loss record of 2-0 and an impressive 0.00 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky this season, as his 3.40 xFIP indicates some regression could be in store. The Padres’ offense ranks 2nd in MLB for team batting average, giving Kolek ample run support.

On the other hand, Seattle will counter with Logan Evans, another right-handed pitcher who has struggled with a 6.60 ERA. Evans has been shaky in his recent starts, and his low strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a Padres lineup that excels at putting the ball in play. Evans projects to allow 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks today, which could spell trouble against a potent Padres offense.

The projections for today’s game suggest the Padres are favored to score around 4.62 runs, while the Mariners are expected to tally an average of 3.88 runs. With a strong performance from Kolek and a favorable matchup against Evans, San Diego looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Logan Evans has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dylan Moore’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.4-mph mark last year has dropped off to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners bats as a group rank 4th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 10.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  With a 0.64 disparity between Stephen Kolek’s 3.99 ERA and his 3.35 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game since the start of last season and should positively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.280) implies that Jake Cronenworth has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .244 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+12.10 Units / 58% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)