Score Prediction and Insights for Pirates vs Phillies Match – May 16, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on May 16, 2025, both teams are at very different points in their seasons. Philadelphia, with a strong 25-18 record, is riding high after a recent victory, while Pittsburgh struggles at 15-29, having dropped several key games recently. The Phillies are looking to capitalize on their solid play, especially against a struggling opponent like the Pirates.

Ranger Suarez is slated to take the mound for Philadelphia. Although his 5.91 ERA this season looks concerning, his 2.95 xFIP suggests he has faced some misfortune and may improve. Suarez’s effectiveness as a high-groundball pitcher (55% ground ball rate) could bode well against the Pirates, who have managed a meager 31 home runs this season—ranking them 2nd lowest in MLB. This matchup sets up favorably for Suarez, who aims to solidify his status as the 26th best starting pitcher according to Power Rankings, while projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs today.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney will be tasked with keeping the game competitive. Heaney has a respectable 3.15 ERA but his 4.18 xFIP indicates potential regression. Given that he’s projected to allow 3.2 earned runs, he may struggle against a Phillies offense that ranks 11th overall in MLB, with standout stats including a 7th rank in batting average.

With the Phillies heavily favored, oddsmakers are projecting a total of 8.5 runs, still finding room for excitement in this National League showdown. As the Pirates aim to avoid further slip-ups, all eyes will be on how these two left-handers fare against their opposing lineups.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has decreased 2.2 mph this year (89.3 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez (50.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia has performed as the #2 squad in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (46.2% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.55 Units / 43% ROI)