Check Out the Match Preview: Brewers vs Guardians Game Forecast and Analysis – 5/14/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Cleveland Guardians

In this Interleague matchup on May 14, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Progressive Field. The Guardians, boasting a record of 25-17, are enjoying a strong season, while the Brewers sit at 20-23, struggling to find their footing. The Guardians won the previous game in this series by a score of 2-0, marking a shutout victory that showcased their pitching prowess.

Cleveland is projected to start right-hander Gavin Williams, who has had an up-and-down season thus far. With a 3-2 record and a 4.38 ERA, he ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average. His last outing was solid, where he pitched 5 innings with no earned runs, 8 strikeouts, and 4 walks. However, he tends to allow a high number of hits, which could be a concern against a Brewers offense that, while ranking 25th in the league overall, has some speed on the base paths.

On the other side, Milwaukee will counter with Logan Henderson, who has made just one start this season but has been impressive with a 1.50 ERA. Despite this, he is projected to pitch poorly today, averaging only 4.9 innings and allowing 2.3 earned runs. His 2.26 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate thus far and may struggle moving forward.

From an offensive standpoint, the Guardians rank 18th overall, with a respectable number of home runs. However, they sit 23rd in team batting average, which reveals inconsistency at the plate. The Brewers are mired in a similar situation, ranking 25th in both overall offense and batting average.

Cleveland’s bullpen, ranked 2nd overall, should provide a significant advantage if the game is close late. With the Guardians currently favored at -120, this matchup appears to lean towards Cleveland, but bettors should keep a close eye on how both pitchers perform against the respective lineups today. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive and tightly contested affair.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Logan Henderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  In his last outing, Logan Henderson was rolling and compiled 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Caleb Durbin’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 83.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.6-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Gavin Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Henderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.20 Units / 51% ROI)