Player Trends for Phillies vs Guardians – Saturday, May 10th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians host the Philadelphia Phillies in a crucial Interleague matchup on May 10, 2025. Both teams are having great seasons, with the Guardians holding a record of 23-15, slightly ahead of the Phillies at 22-16. This game marks the second in the series, and the Guardians look to build on their recent 6-0 victory over the Phillies, who will be eager to bounce back after that shutout loss.

Starting for the Guardians is Tanner Bibee, who has had a solid season with a 3-2 record and an average ERA of 4.26. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky this year, as his FIP of 6.13 indicates potential struggles ahead. Bibee’s high walk rate of 10.1% could be a concern against a Phillies offense that ranks 5th in MLB for drawing walks. On the other hand, Ranger Suarez, projected to start for Philadelphia, has had a rough start to the season, posting an alarming ERA of 17.18 in his lone start. Despite this, his xFIP of 2.62 suggests he might turn things around.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 14th overall, but they have shown power, sitting 11th in home runs. Their best hitter is in excellent form, boasting a 1.285 OPS over the last week, which could be a key advantage against Suarez. Meanwhile, the Phillies feature a stronger offense, ranked 8th, and their best hitter has also been hot, hitting .455 in the past week with an OPS of 1.136.

With both teams having strong bullpens—Cleveland ranked 5th and Philadelphia 24th—the Guardians are positioned as slight favorites in this matchup. Betting lines reflect a close game, suggesting that while the Guardians have the edge, the Phillies could surprise if Suarez finds his footing.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Given that groundball hitters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez and his 50.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in this game matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kyle Schwarber has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 42.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 25.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Bibee has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6% less often this season (50.3%) than he did last season (56.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Gabriel Arias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 46% ROI)