Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)+135
On May 8, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in an important National League West matchup at Chase Field. This game marks the opening of a series between these two rivals. In their previous encounter on May 7, the Diamondbacks fell to the Dodgers with a disappointing score of 7-1, while the Dodgers are riding high after a 10-1 victory over their opponent.
Currently, the Diamondbacks hold a 19-18 record, an average performance thus far this season. In contrast, the Dodgers are enjoying a strong campaign with a 25-12 record, indicating they are one of the best teams in the league. Despite this, oddsmakers have made the Diamondbacks +140 underdogs for this matchup, suggesting a 40% chance to win, which may undervalue their potential.
Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, comes into this game with a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.79, which is respectable. However, his peripheral stats indicate some luck this season, with a higher Expected ERA (xERA) of 5.31. Pfaadt’s last outing was challenging, as he was hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings on May 3.
On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set to take the mound for the Dodgers, boasting an impressive 4-2 record and a staggering ERA of 0.90, ranking him as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Yamamoto pitched exceptionally well in his last game, delivering a dominant performance where he did not allow any earned runs over 6 innings.
While the Diamondbacks have a solid offense, ranking 5th overall in MLB, they will face a daunting task against the Dodgers’ elite lineup, which ranks 2nd in both batting average and home runs. This clash promises to be a thrilling contest, particularly with a high Game Total of 9.0 runs projected, indicating potential fireworks at the plate.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Out of all starting pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.4-mph to 98.8-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Bats such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+135)The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.49 Units / 16% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.70 Units / 174% ROI)