Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Pirates vs Cardinals Match Preview – May 05, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

On May 5, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves struggling this season, with the Cardinals sitting at 16-19 and the Pirates at 12-23. The Cardinals’ below-average record has them ranked 4th in the National League Central, while the Pirates are at the bottom of the division.

In their most recent outings, the Cardinals have been unable to find consistent success, but they recently saw their best hitter post a solid week, recording 7 hits and 6 runs in just 7 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates have been plagued by offensive woes, ranking 25th in MLB. Their struggles are compounded by the fact that they have hit only 25 home runs this season, the 3rd least in the league.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, bringing a 1-2 record and an average ERA of 4.66. Despite his low ranking as the 227th best starting pitcher in MLB, his FIP of 2.92 suggests he has been unlucky and could improve. He faces Carmen Mlodzinski, who has a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.58, making him one of the worst pitchers in the league according to the projections.

With the Cardinals’ offense ranking 5th in team batting average, they have the potential to exploit Mlodzinski’s weaknesses. St. Louis is favored with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, which could set the stage for a much-needed victory as they look to gain momentum in the series.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2052 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2124 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 102.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 97-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Pittsburgh’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Willson Contreras, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)