Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Giants vs Cubs 5/5/25

San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs

On May 5, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Cubs sitting at 21-14 and the Giants at 22-13. However, the Cubs are coming off a tough 4-0 loss against their rivals on May 4, while the Giants secured a 9-3 victory in their latest outing.

Chicago has the advantage in this matchup, particularly with their potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. The Cubs excel in multiple offensive categories, including 2nd in team batting average and 3rd in home runs. This firepower could play a crucial role against Giants’ starter Landen Roupp, who has struggled this season with a 5.10 ERA and is projected to allow 2.4 earned runs today. Roupp also faces a challenging task, as he is a high-walk pitcher (10.4 BB%) going up against a Cubs lineup that ranks 2nd in drawing walks.

Cubs’ pitcher Matthew Boyd, on the other hand, has been solid this year, boasting a 2.70 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 66th among starting pitchers. Boyd’s recent performance was promising, as he allowed just 2 earned runs in his last start on April 30, demonstrating his potential to keep the Giants at bay. The projections suggest he will allow only 2.0 earned runs today, further supporting the Cubs’ chances of success.

With the Cubs favored at a moneyline of -165, this game presents a favorable opportunity for bettors to back a team with strong offensive capabilities and a reliable starting pitcher. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a relatively low-scoring affair. However, given the Cubs’ offensive talent, they may well overpower Roupp and take the series opener.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Tallying 94 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Landen Roupp falls in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Boyd.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco’s 15.4° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in Major League Baseball this year: #6 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs batters jointly rank 8th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 10% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)