Explore Player Props Preview for Athletics vs Rangers – 5/1/25

Athletics

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Texas Rangers

On May 1, 2025, the Texas Rangers host the Oakland Athletics at Globe Life Field in what is the fourth game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with identical records of 16-15, indicating they are having above-average seasons. The Rangers are coming off a tough loss to the Athletics from April 30, where they were defeated 7-1, while the Athletics look to build on their recent success against Texas.

The spotlight will be on Rangers’ right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a 3-0 record and a stellar ERA of 1.14. Despite some advanced metrics suggesting he may have been lucky, Mahle is still viewed as an above-average pitcher, ranked 79th among approximately 350 starters. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. Facing him is Athletics’ Jeffrey Springs, a lefty who has struggled with a 3-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.04, ranking as a below-average pitcher. Springs is also coming off a rough outing, allowing 5 earned runs in his last start on April 26.

Offensively, the Rangers are ranked 24th in MLB this season, which is concerning given their current matchup with an Athletics squad that boasts the 9th-best offense, highlighted by their impressive home run numbers. However, they are hampered by a 30th ranking in stolen bases, suggesting they may not capitalize on potential scoring opportunities.

Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with the Rangers having a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability against the Athletics’ +110 line with a 46% win probability. Given the Rangers’ pitching advantage today, there is potential for them to exceed expectations against the Athletics, particularly if Mahle continues his excellent form.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  The Texas Rangers have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Jeffrey Springs in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  As it relates to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has been lucky since the start of last season. His 27.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brent Rooker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Over his last 3 starts, Tyler Mahle has seen a sizeable decline in his fastball velocity: from 91.3 mph over the entire season to 89.8 mph of late.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .323 overall projected rate, the .312 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Texas Rangers projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.95 Units / 55% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)