Review the Brewers vs White Sox Insights and Game Breakdown – May 1, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Chicago White Sox

On May 1, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Guaranteed Rate Field in an Interleague matchup that continues their series after the Brewers claimed victory yesterday by a score of 6-4. The White Sox, currently struggling with a 7-23 record, are not contending for a playoff spot and are boasting one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking 29th overall. Meanwhile, the Brewers sit at 16-15, showcasing an above-average performance so far this season.

The White Sox will send Sean Burke to the mound, who, despite having only a 1-4 record and an alarming ERA of 6.00 this year, is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.8 earned runs. Burke’s underlying metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as his 5.36 xFIP is somewhat lower than his high ERA. However, the White Sox’s offense has struggled significantly, ranking last in batting average and 27th in home runs, making it hard to provide their pitchers with much support.

On the other side, Chad Patrick takes the hill for Milwaukee. With a 2.45 ERA and a 1-2 record, he has impressed in his limited appearances, although his 4.58 xFIP indicates a potential decline in performance. The Brewers’ offense, ranked 15th overall, is led by a strong hitter with a .317 batting average and a solid 0.777 OPS, both of which could prove crucial against a floundering White Sox lineup.

As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, the projections indicate that the Brewers are favored to score around 4.66 runs compared to the White Sox’s average implied total of 3.84 runs. With a mix of a strong pitching matchup for the Brewers and the White Sox’s ongoing struggles, it appears Milwaukee has the edge heading into this contest.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Chad Patrick’s 86.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 2nd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jake Bauers is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Luis Robert Jr.’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 90-mph figure last year has decreased to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.02 Units / 37% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 17% ROI)