Marlins vs Mariners Betting Guide and Expert Picks April 27th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins on April 27, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with some momentum, albeit on different trajectories. The Mariners are riding high after a commanding 14-0 victory yesterday, while the Marlins are looking to shake off that same margin of defeat and improve their 12-14 record this season. With Seattle currently sitting at 15-12, they are eyeing a series win and showcasing their offense, which ranks 4th in MLB.

Logan Evans is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, where he looks to build on his average performance of 5.4 innings pitched with a solid projection of 2.0 earned runs allowed today. However, he faces off against Max Meyer, who boasts a strong ERA of 2.10 this season and recently struck out an impressive 14 batters in his last start on April 21. This might give him an edge against a Mariners lineup that, despite being powerful with the 3rd most home runs in MLB, could struggle to lift the ball against Meyer’s high-groundball profile.

The Mariners’ offense, while making strides, has shown some inconsistency as they rank just 18th in batting average. Conversely, the Marlins’ offense ranks 15th overall but shines with a 5th place ranking in batting average. Despite this, they face challenges with only the 24th most home runs this season, indicating they might struggle to keep up with the Mariners’ offensive firepower.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, the low number reflects the expectations for a competitive pitching duel. The Mariners enter as favorites with a moneyline of -145, indicating confidence in their ability to secure the win at T-Mobile Park. As both teams strive for a better season, it will be intriguing to see how this game unfolds.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball hitters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Max Meyer and his 47.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot today squaring off against 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Bats such as Xavier Edwards with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bryce Miller who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Logan Evans in the 13th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Over the last week, Randy Arozarena’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Seattle Mariners bats as a group place 2nd- in MLB for power this year when using their 11.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 78% ROI)