Weather for Pirates vs Dodgers Game – 4/27/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on April 27, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Dodgers sit at a strong 17-10, while the Pirates struggle with an 11-17 record. In their most recent clash on April 26, the Dodgers secured a convincing 8-4 victory, further establishing their dominance in this series.

The projected starters bring contrasting narratives to this game. Tyler Glasnow, ranked 11th among starting pitchers in MLB, looks to build on his solid start to the season. Glasnow holds a 3.71 ERA and has been effective, projecting to allow just 2.1 earned runs while striking out an average of 7.5 batters. His high-strikeout capabilities could pose problems for a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in most strikeouts.

On the other hand, the Pirates will trot out Bailey Falter, who has not found his rhythm this season, with a 5.19 ERA and a troubling 1-2 record. His flyball tendencies, combined with the Dodgers’ power—leading MLB with 43 home runs—could turn potential flyouts into big hits. Falter’s projections suggest a lack of efficiency, as he is expected to allow 3.3 earned runs and 5.3 hits in only 5.0 innings.

While the Dodgers boast the 8th best overall offense and currently rank 1st in home runs, the Pirates find themselves sinking with a 26th overall ranking in offense. This disparity could play a significant role as the Dodgers look to dominate once again, backed by an impressive bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bailey Falter’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (90.9 mph) below where it was last season (92 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.1-mph to 102.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-310)
  Tyler Glasnow is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Falter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-335)
  The best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+3.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Enmanuel Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-165/+125)
  Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)