Game Breakdown: Orioles vs Tigers Head-to-Head Insights 4/27/2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers and the Baltimore Orioles face off in the third game of their series on April 27, 2025, following the Tigers’ decisive 6-2 victory over the Orioles yesterday. The Tigers are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 17-10, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the American League. In contrast, the Orioles have struggled, sitting at 10-16 and showing signs of a lackluster season.

On the mound, the Tigers are set to start Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of elite this season, ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skubal boasts a 2-2 record with a stellar ERA of 2.83 and projects to allow only 1.7 earned runs while striking out an average of 7.0 batters today. His last outing saw him pitch effectively, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Dean Kremer will take the ball for the Orioles, but he has struggled this year with a 2-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.84. While his xFIP suggests he may improve, his recent performance—allowing 5 earned runs in his last start—doesn’t inspire confidence. Kremer’s average projections today indicate he will allow 2.6 earned runs but also 5.0 hits and 2.1 walks, which could be problematic against a Tigers offense that ranks 13th overall in MLB.

With the Tigers’ potent bullpen ranked 2nd overall, they are well-equipped to protect any lead. While the betting lines favor the Tigers with a moneyline of -230, making them a strong favorite, their implied team total of 4.50 runs suggests potential for an even larger margin of victory, especially against a struggling Orioles lineup that ranks 20th in overall offense. Expect Detroit to leverage Skubal’s dominance and capitalize on Baltimore’s pitching woes.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+205)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, hitters like Jackson Holliday who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tarik Skubal.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles hitters as a group rank among the best in baseball this year (3rd-) as it relates to their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
  Tarik Skubal has averaged 17.2 outs per start this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Zach McKinstry is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Trey Sweeney hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-245)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 68% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)
  Heston Kjerstad has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)