Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Yankees – Saturday April 26, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Chris Bassitt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 95.9-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Clarke Schmidt’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (90.9% compared to 79.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+175/-230)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)