Odds and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Mariners – 4/25/2025

Miami Marlins

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are set to host the Miami Marlins in an intriguing Interleague matchup on April 25, 2025. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, with the Mariners currently holding a record of 14-11, while the Marlins sit at 11-13. The Mariners are coming off a victory against the Marlins, winning 4-3 in their last game on April 24, and are looking to build on that success.

Seattle will send Logan Gilbert to the mound, who has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Gilbert’s ERA of 2.63 and his projections suggest he could pitch around 6.5 innings, allowing just 2.0 earned runs and striking out 8.1 batters. His ability to dominate will be crucial against a Marlins offense that, despite ranking 13th overall, struggles to produce power, sitting 24th in home runs this season.

On the other hand, Miami will counter with Cal Quantrill, who has had a rough start to the season, posting an ERA of 8.31. His last outing on April 19 was disastrous, where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. With projections indicating he may only pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing nearly 3 earned runs, the Mariners’ potent lineup, which ranks 9th in offense, could take advantage of Quantrill’s struggles.

Betting lines favor the Mariners significantly, with a moneyline of -295, reflecting their strong position heading into this game. Given the current trends and the matchup of Gilbert against a struggling Marlins offense, Seattle looks poised to secure another victory at T-Mobile Park.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
  Cal Quantrill allowed a colossal 6 earned runs in his last start.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Extreme groundball batters like Xavier Edwards tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Logan Gilbert (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Miami’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Dylan Moore has a ton of pop (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Moore.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+300/-440)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)