Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-140
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 25, 2025, in the first game of their series at Busch Stadium. Both teams find themselves struggling in the standings, with the Cardinals at 10-15 and the Brewers slightly better at 13-13. While the Cardinals rank as the 6th best offense in MLB this season, their performance has been inconsistent, especially with a troubling 20th ranking in home runs.
In their last matchup, the Cardinals suffered a complete game shutout loss, highlighting their difficulties this season. Nevertheless, they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has shown promise despite a subpar record of 1-2. His ERA sits at a respectable 3.60, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky this year, as indicated by his lower xFIP of 2.79. Liberatore is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, though he’ll need to tighten up his control, as he projects to give up 1.7 walks and 5.1 hits.
On the other side, the Brewers are set to start Chad Patrick, whose 2.11 ERA stands out as excellent. However, his xFIP of 4.38 suggests he may not sustain this performance. Patrick is also projected for a 5.4-inning outing, and like Liberatore, he faces challenges with hits and walks allowed, projecting similar figures in those areas.
Betting markets lean toward the Cardinals, currently lining them at -135, which reflects confidence in their offensive power to break through against Patrick. Given their recent struggles, the Cardinals will need to capitalize on their hitting capabilities, especially as they look to improve from their current rankings.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Chad Patrick is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)In the past week’s worth of games, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)In today’s matchup, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)Matthew Liberatore has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 4.22 mark is a good deal higher than his 3.67 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)From last season to this one, Pedro Pages’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.7 mph to 83.3 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- It may be best to expect worse results for the St. Louis Cardinals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)