Discover Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Twins – 4/24/25

Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on April 24, 2025, both teams are struggling significantly this season. The Twins sit at 9-15, while the White Sox are even worse at 5-19. In their previous matchup, the Twins defeated the White Sox, continuing their push to improve from a disappointing start.

On the mound, the Twins will send Chris Paddack to the hill, who has been less than stellar this year with an 0-2 record and a troubling 7.27 ERA. However, projections indicate that Paddack may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.78 suggests he could be due for a turnaround. He averages 5.4 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.3 earned runs, which is a positive sign against a struggling White Sox offense that ranks last in MLB.

Shane Smith will take the mound for the White Sox, sporting an impressive 2.82 ERA despite a 0-1 record. However, his xFIP of 4.99 suggests that he might not be able to sustain this level of performance. Smith projects to pitch only 4.9 innings, which could be a disadvantage against a Twins lineup ranked 28th in offense but still capable of capitalizing on a pitcher who struggles to go deep into games.

With the Twins’ bullpen ranked 11th in MLB, they may have an edge late in the game, especially against a White Sox bullpen that ranks 26th. The Twins are favored with a moneyline of -225 and an implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the White Sox are underdogs at +195, with a low implied total of 3.23 runs. Overall, this matchup sets the stage for a potential Twins victory as they look to build on their recent success.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Shane Smith has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -15.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has relied on his secondary offerings 9.8% less often this season (47.3%) than he did last season (57.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year, putting up a .229 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .110 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (88th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Jacob Amaya has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)