D-Backs vs Cubs Picks and Betting Tips – April 19th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 19, 2025, in a matchup featuring two teams enjoying strong seasons. The Cubs currently sit at 13-9, while the Diamondbacks are just behind at 12-8. Despite their recent success, the Cubs are coming off a tough loss to the Diamondbacks in their last outing, where they struggled to find their rhythm.

Ben Brown is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, boasting a decent 2-1 record this season, but his 5.09 ERA raises some eyebrows. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.65 xFIP indicates he could improve. Brown’s high walk rate (10.7 BB%) against a patient Diamondbacks lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB for walks, could spell trouble for him.

On the other side, Zac Gallen will start for Arizona. Gallen has a 1-2 record and a 4.64 ERA, which is average, but his 4.02 SIERA suggests he, too, has faced some misfortune this season. Gallen’s flyball tendencies (41 FB%) could be a concern against a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB with 32 home runs.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 3rd overall in MLB, showcasing their strength in batting average, home runs, and walks. The Diamondbacks, however, have the top-ranked offense in MLB, making this matchup particularly compelling. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a closely contested game, and the Cubs’ moneyline of -125 reflects their status as slight favorites, despite the Diamondbacks’ impressive offensive capabilities.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Zac Gallen’s curveball percentage has decreased by 8.5% from last year to this one (27.7% to 19.2%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .349 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ben Brown’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.8-mph decline from last year’s 96.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Arizona’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago’s 93-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #9 squad in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 84 away games (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 39% ROI)