Team Stats and Prediction for Cubs vs Padres Matchup 4/15/25

Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres

On April 15, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in what is the second game of their series. The Padres are riding high with a record of 14-3, showcasing an impressive offense that ranks 4th in MLB, while the Cubs sit at 11-8 with a strong lineup of their own, placing 3rd in the league. Both teams are coming off a notable game yesterday, with the Padres defeating the Cubs 10-4, further solidifying their momentum.

The pitching matchup features Randy Vasquez for the Padres and Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Vasquez, despite his 1.72 ERA, is ranked 278th among MLB starters, indicating he may have been fortunate so far this season. He projects to pitch roughly 4.9 innings today and could struggle with control, as evidenced by his high walk rate of 19.4%. In contrast, Imanaga has shown more stability with a 2.70 ERA and a better overall projection for innings, expected to go around 6.0. However, he too faces challenges, as his 4.91 xFIP suggests he might not sustain his current success.

While the Padres’ offense has been dominant, ranking 2nd in batting average and 10th in home runs, they will need to capitalize on Vasquez’s ability to keep the Cubs’ powerful lineup at bay. The Cubs, with their 4th best ranking in home runs, could pose a significant threat given Vasquez’s tendency to yield fly balls.

With the Padres positioned as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, the projections suggest they may exceed expectations in this matchup, especially if their offense can continue to exploit Imanaga’s vulnerabilities. As always, bettors should keep an eye on how these dynamics play out on the field.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The San Diego Padres have 7 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Michael Busch has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .320, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .342 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Out of all starters, Randy Vasquez’s fastball spin rate of 2414.6 rpm is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.70 Units / 74% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)