Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Red Sox vs Rays – Tuesday April 15, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

On April 15, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox in what promises to be an engaging matchup in the American League East. The Rays enter this game with an 8-8 record, while the Red Sox sit a notch below at 8-10. This marks the second game of the series, and both teams are looking to find their footing as they approach the middle of April.

In their previous outing, the Rays claimed a close victory over the Red Sox, a pivotal moment for both teams as they seek to build momentum. Tampa Bay’s offense has been solid, ranking 8th in MLB and showcasing a particularly impressive .284 team batting average, which places them 4th overall. Meanwhile, Boston has shown some offensive potential, ranking 14th overall, though their power numbers have been disappointing, sitting at 21st in team home runs.

Ryan Pepiot is set to take the mound for the Rays. With a solid 3.38 ERA this season and currently positioned as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced-stat Power Rankings, he’s on the higher end of the spectrum. However, his high walk rate of 9.6% could be a concern, especially against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in free passes. Pepiot’s projections suggest he will allow an above-average 2.4 earned runs, which might open the door for Boston’s offense to capitalize.

Meanwhile, Walker Buehler will toe the rubber for the Red Sox. Despite his below-average performance this season, with a horrendous 5.74 ERA, his projections indicate a chance for improvement today. He has the potential to match Pepiot inning for inning, projecting to yield an average of 2.5 earned runs.

With a game total of 9.0 runs, sportsbooks have made this a close contest, with Tampa Bay favored at -130. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the inconsistencies of their respective starting pitchers, bettors should keep a close eye on this pivotal matchup in the AL East.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+110)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In comparison to his 89-mph average last year, Alex Bregman’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Ryan Pepiot (38.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Walker Buehler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Tampa Bay Rays projected lineup today (.312 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .337 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 17% ROI)