Padres vs Athletics Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Monday April 7, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on April 7, 2025, at Sutter Health Park, the stakes remain high for both squads. The Athletics have struggled this season with a dismal 4-6 record, while the Padres are riding high at 8-2. It’s worth noting that the Athletics are coming off a tough 12-5 loss against the Padres yesterday, further showcasing their struggles.

Oakland’s projected starter, Luis Severino, will be looking to bounce back after a rough outing on April 1, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. In contrast, the Padres will counter with Michael King, who recently put on a stellar performance, going 5 innings with no earned runs and racking up an impressive 11 strikeouts. While both pitchers might be right-handed, their current form could hardly be more different, as Severino ranks just 156th among starting pitchers, while King sits at an impressive 17th.

The Athletics’ offensive strength lies in their power, ranking 7th in home runs despite their 23rd-best overall performance in MLB teams. This could provide a crucial edge going up against a high-flyball pitcher like King, who has a 40% flyball rate. However, King’s elite projection suggests he might find a way to minimize the damage.

In terms of betting, the Athletics enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, which implies an average expected total of 3.88 runs for the game. Conversely, the Padres are favored at -150, with an average implied team total of 4.62 runs. With the Athletics needing a turnaround, this matchup could be pivotal in setting the tone for the rest of the season.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Michael King is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 92.5-mph average last year has lowered to 88.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Luis Severino has utilized his slider 6.4% more often this year (30.6%) than he did last season (24.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+130)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 73 games (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)