Game Location for Yankees vs Pirates – 4/4/25

New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the New York Yankees on April 4, 2025, this matchup is set to be a compelling one, particularly given the stark contrast in both teams’ performances so far this season. The Yankees sit at 4-2 and boast the 1st best offense in Major League Baseball, while the Pirates struggle with a 2-5 record and rank as the 49th best offense. Pittsburgh is coming off a win against the St. Louis Cardinals, where they secured a 4-2 victory, but their overall performance indicates a tough season ahead.

On the mound, the Pirates will rely on Mitch Keller, who has shown flashes of brilliance with an impressive 1.50 ERA this year. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 169th best starting pitcher, signaling inconsistency that may hinder his effectiveness. Keller projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks per game is concerning.

On the other hand, the Yankees counter with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 9th overall in the league. Fried’s 3.86 ERA is solid, and he projects to go 6.1 innings with only 2.0 earned runs allowed. His recent performance showcases the Yankees’ advantage in this matchup, particularly as Keller faces a powerful lineup.

With the Pirates’ offense struggling at 45th in batting average and a very low implied team total of 3.39 runs, the Yankees emerge not only as favorites but also as a team poised to capitalize on Keller’s weaknesses. The projections favor New York, suggesting they’ll likely continue their strong start against a Pirates team that has yet to find its rhythm.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Max Fried will be at an advantage going up against 8 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the other side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Anthony Volpe is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Today, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)